Dear Old U.Va.

2010 Football Schedule Analysis - The Second Half

Monday, August 30 2010 by Tim

Overview

By the midway point of the season, the Cavaliers will have faced three non-conference opponents and three conference opponents. We predicted Virginia would hold a 3-3 record at that point, though only two of those wins would count for bowl eligibility.

The second half of the season begins with the final non-conference game, as Eastern Michigan comes to town. After that, it’s five consecutive ACC games – including three on the road - to close out the season. Let’s take a look:

vs. Eastern Michigan (October 23th)

Tiki – There are 120 teams in Division I-A, and I would wager that I can name the mascot of at least 115 of them without googling.  Eastern Michigan is one of the other 5. I got Central Michigan (Chippewas, and don’t even ask me what a Chippewa is) and I got Western Michigan (Broncos).  But despite playing in the same conference as the other two directional Michigans, Eastern is so far away from the collective national football conscience, I really had no earthly idea. When EMU had their last winning record, George Welsh was still coaching Virginia Football.

So, considering the above paragraph, you would think we’ll be heavily favored to beat the Eagles on our home field. You would be right. We will be favored, and we will beat them. EMU really may be the worst team in DI-A. Hoos 45, Eagles 13.

Tim – Reading TIki’s comments about EMU’s last winning record, I can’t help but feel like some fans think it’s been that long since U.Va. had a winning record. The bottom line here is that EMU is bad. I’m pretty sure that Richmond would beat them. Maybe not this year, but most years. By this point in the season, we’re going to know what we have on the field. A record of 3-3 right now, give or take a win, won’t tell the whole story. But whoever watches the actual games (I’ll have seen at least 5 of the 6 personally) will have a good feel for what’s going on.

My take on what’s going on at this point? We’re a lot better than EMU. I don’t think there’s much more to say here. I’m calling it 38-10

vs. Miami (October 30th)

Tiki – Now, we really get into the meat of the schedule. Yes, we’ve already played 2 ACC teams, and we’ve played 2 very difficult road games. But all our remaining games are against ACC schools and there really isn’t an easy game in there. Although it is possible I will disprove that statement somewhere in the next two sections.

The last time Miami came to Charlottesville, we lost a heartbreaker that we should’ve won. Last year, in Miami, we got completely and utterly dominated in every facet of the game. Miami remains a shell of their former selves, but they are still improving. Led by QB Jacoby Harris, the Miami offense is seriously scary. However, their defense is a work in progress. It remains to be seen how successful they will be this season, but if the defense holds up, they will challenge for the Coastal division. Still, a game in Charlottesville will be a tough test for them. I think they will be up for the challenge.  Canes 31, Hoos 20.

Tim – I want to believe that at this point in the season, the ‘Hoos would be prime for an upset. Given the way Miami stole one from us (or had it handed to them, depending on your perspective) two years ago, I’d certainly love for that to happen. But I just don’t see it. Miami’s offense, even against a Virginia defense that I think will be working just fine at this point in the season, is simply going to put up more points than the Virginia offense will muster against the Cane D. In that regard, football is a simple game. I think it stays close early, but the Canes pull away and win 31-24

at Duke (November 6th)

Tiki – This is not the same Duke team that has been competing over the past decade or so. The Blue Devils were 5-7 last year, and have beaten the Hoos twice in a row. Sadly, they still play in the same dump of a stadium. And they still do not have visiting locker rooms in this dump. For the Wahoo fans that are traveling to (or live near) Durham, and who will be attending the game, I feel sorry that you have to suffer so. Think of it as a rite of passage for ACC football fans.

The Blue Devils over the past few years have been led by QB Thaddeus Lewis, who sorta rewrote the Duke record books. Well, he’s playing in St Louis now, and Duke has a bunch of underclassmen at QB. They will struggle to score points. Their defense also isn’t quite what it was the past couple of years. This figures to be a rebuilding year for them. Mike London wins his first road game. Hoos 23, Devils, 10.

Tim – I’ll never forget my first time at Wallace Wade, watching the team run off into the woods at halftime. My good friend Shane was a manager back then and I called him to ask him where the heck they were going. I had no idea that it was possible for an FBS team to have no visiting locker rooms, let alone an ACC team.

How is that relevant to this year’s game? It’s not. I’m just still shocked by it. Anyways… without Lewis, the Duke offense is back to being truly subpar. Better than they were before Lewis? Probably. Good enough to beat Virginia in the second half of the 2010 season? Nope. Virginia’s defense will be able to handle the Duke offense without a problem. Hoos get some payback for the last couple of years, 27-10.

vs. Maryland (November 13th)

Tiki – The Terrapins are bad. Really bad. Worse than we were last year. Last year, we won in Maryland, in a monsoon. Two years ago, we won 31-0 at home. They last beat us in 2006.

Hopefully, by now, our offense and defense are clicking. With two very difficult road games remaining, this is our last best shot shot at a win. This Maryland team will be not be good enough to go on the road and win a rivalry game. Sadly, it will also not be good enough to save Ralph Friedgen’s job.  Hoos 33, Terps 10.

Tim – I was at that monsoon in Maryland last year and I was at the 31-0 destruction in 2008. Tiki’s right, Maryland is bad. They were bad enough last year, that even a not-very-good Cavalier team, playing well below their potential, still beat them in their own house. I have no doubt that Fridge loses his job this year and this game might be one of the ones that seals the deal. Though frankly, the home loss to Duke a month and a half earlier might have already done that. Virginia wins 30-13.

at Boston College (November 20th)

Tiki – If my predictions hold up until this point, the Hoos will need to win one of these last two road games in order to make a bowl game. Of course, there is no chance my predictions hold up. They certainly never have before. This is the 2nd second set of Eagles we play in just under a month. This one is better than the last one, however.

BC returns most of a team that finished 2nd in the Atlantic division a year ago. This is their last ACC game, and there’s a decent chance they’ll need a W to stay alive for an ACC Championship game berth. If, for some reason, they’ve been eliminated already, it is possible they struggle to get up for this game. Plus, the weather in Boston, in November, can be dreary. This could combine for a positive atmosphere from the Hoos’ perspective. Still, BC is more talented, especially offensively, than we are. I just can’t see us winning this game on the road.  Eagles 27, Hoos 17.

Tim – At this point in the season, I think things have become pretty easy to predict – at least as far as predicting what a bunch of 18-22 year olds do can be called easy. This will be a normal college football game with the “New Era of Virginia Football” taglines. Boston College will likely have a decent advantage on the offensive side of the ball, even though I think the Hoos – in the 11th game of the season – will be pretty close to BC on the defensive side. But in the end, BC will be the slightly better team and they’ll also have home field advantage. BC wins 21-14

at Virginia Tech (November 27th)

Tiki – The ACC Coastal division may be up for grabs for the Hokies this week. Miami and Georgia Tech play out of conference, while UNC plays Duke. To be honest, it probably doesn’t matter too much. Anybody on either of these teams who has trouble getting hyped for this game is probably at the wrong school. For the most part, the same goes for the fans. In fact, Hokie fans may be more annoying than the rest of the ACC combined.

Anyway, the Hokies are a better team than we are. Plus, they are playing at home, where the weather in late November can be bad. I think, by this point, the Hoos defense will be pretty solid. The offense, well that’s another story. For seemingly the 1000^th time in a row, the Hokie defense will shut us down. Even if our defense manages to keep Ryan Williams, et al under wraps, they will eventually wear us down. Hokies 24, Hoos 6 though the game may seem closer than the score would indicate.

Tim – Predicting this game very well be about as easy as predicting the BC game. Virginia Tech probably has more talent on offense; they certainly have more proven talent on offense. The defenses are probably closer, but the Hokies still have the edge there. So it should be easy to say that the Hokies win by a score of 27-10 or so, right?

Well, rivalry games have a way of being a little weird, don’t they? There’s always the possibility that the Hoos have gelled enough as a team that they can put together some good offensive drives. And if the defensive players take to their new style well, maybe they can shut down their offensive a little bit. We only lost by three the last time we played in Blacksburg, and I think our starting QB this season might have reason to want another chance down there (Virginia 3rd and 11 at the VT 25 yard line. Marc Verica pass intercepted by Porch, D in the VT endzone; 2:15 seconds left in the game). Could happen, right?

Yes, it could. But it probably won’t. I have to go with my first option – VT wins 27-10. But that doesn’t mean I won’t be fanatically cheering for the other option.

Recap

Well, there’s our season. The Hoos finish at 6-6, which isn’t bad at all, considering the schedule. I reiterate how dumb it was to schedule two DI-AA teams in the same season. It is difficult enough to prepare for any opponent, regardless of who they are or what division they play in. When you are trying to build a program, any win is a good win. And the extra month of practice that is the reward for earning a bowl berth would have been invaluable. Nobody will ever convince me that we couldn’t manage to find a game against a Sun Belt school, or maybe something like Army or Navy.

If we do manage to get to a bowl game, I think we should all bow down in homage to Mike London and the rest of the coaching staff. More likely, we will look back on this year as a mildly disappointing success. A 5-7 season, or even 4-8, wouldn’t be the end of the world either, but would definitely be a little higher on the disappointment scale and a little lower on the success scale. Either way, I’m excited for the season, and I hope you are too.