Dear Old U.Va.

2010 Football Schedule Analysis - The First Half

Wednesday, August 25 2010 by Tim

Overview

At 6pm on September 4th, the Mike London era officially begins at Virginia. In a nice ironic twist, the Cavaliers will take on Richmond, London’s most recent coaching assignment and the place where he won an FCS National Championship (not to mention his alma mater). That game is the first of two games against FCS opponents (only one of which will count towards bowl eligibility) – VMI comes to town on September 25th. Sandwiched between those two games is a decidedly not-FCS caliber opponent in Southern Cal.

With three of the four non-conference games out of the way, the Cavs head into a stretch of ACC games with FSU at home, a road trip to visit Al Groh’s new home and then defending the streak against Carolina at home.

So let’s take a look at each of these games in-depth:

vs. Richmond (September 4th, 6pm)

Tiki – Something tells me Mike London would prefer to have a different opening game. It can’t be easy facing your old team in your first game. That said, from a team standpoint, it is really the perfect opener. While the UofR Spiders are obviously a solid I-AA team, they are a team the UVA coaching staff and players are familiar with. Of course, that swings both ways. Richmond’s new head coach is former UVA WR coach Latrell Scott, and their players are just as familiar with us as ours are with them. And they have the added incentive of wanting to beat the coach that deserted them. (Please don’t think I’m trying to disparage Coach London here, I am not. I have the utmost respect for him, and I am 100% behind him as our head coach. The fact remains that he had a contract with U of R and he left to take a better job with more money. I would’ve done the same thing, and I do not fault him for the decision he made. However, if I were a Richmond football player, I imagine I would feel deserted.)

A season ago, the Hoos opened with a I-AA team, William & Mary. I think we all know how that one ended up. There will be no repeat this year. The Hoos will come out fired up; the crowd will be fired up (although it will likely be a small crowd); and the Hoos will roll to an easy victory. I don’t think we will see the type of 60-0 domination you sometimes see from SEC schools in these type of mismatches. For one thing, we don’t have the firepower that the national powers have. But even more importantly, London isn’t going to stomp on his former employer. And yet even more importantly, it is important for the coaching staff to try different things, use different players and experiment a bit. They need game film on as many players are possible, and they need to get an idea of what might or might not work against the better teams on our schedule. I predict a 34-10 win for the Hoos, and a 1-0 record for Mike London. His unblemished record will last 7 whole days.

Tim – While the true number of potential outcomes of this game is a very high number, I group them into just three categories as far as what they’ll tell us about the team: 1) We lose, or we win by three or less points; 2) we win by 4-17 points; 3) We win by 18+ points. Outcome 1 basically tells us that we’re screwed for the season. Outcome 3 basically tells us that maybe we’re a little ahead of where we thought we’d be. Outcome 2 tells us absolutely nothing. My prediction is that we’ll be firmly in the middle of Outcome 2 somewhere. I think we’ll win 20-10 and we’ll walk away not really knowing a whole lot more (other than what the end zone graphics will look like) than we did before the game.

at Southern California (September 11th, 7:30pm Pacific)

Tiki – For some reason, I was under the impression that this was the opener for USC and their new head coach Lane Kiffin. I was wrong. (Yes that’s the first time I’ve ever publically acknowledged being incorrect. It was bound to happen eventually.) Two years ago, the Trojans came into Charlottesville with Pete Carroll and Mark Sanchez at the helm, and completely dominated the Hoos en route to a 52-7 win, which was the beginning of the end for the Al Groh era.

Traveling across the country to face anybody is never an easy task, and having to face a top 10 (ok so they aren’t pre-season top 10) makes it all the more difficult. Add in the 100,000+ USC fans sure to pack the LA Coliseum and the Hoos are facing a massive challenge. While I have no doubt the team will be up for the challenge, they are simply outmatched. The Trojans are not the same dominating team they were 5 or 6 years ago, but they are still chock full of 5-star recruits and top draft prospects. Lane Kiffin is not the type of coach to take his foot off the proverbial gas, but he will almost certainly play some younger players in the 2^nd half, in an effort to get more experience for later in the year. It won’t matter, the Trojans 2^nd team is more talented than most school’s first teams. The Hoos will fight, they will work, and they will fail. Trojans 48, Hoos 13. And, most importantly, I will be happy with the effort.

Tim – Ironically, I think this is the first game where we really see some glimpses of what a Mike London football team will be like. I don’t think we win the game. In fact, I don’t think the final score will look like it was ever in question who would win – Tiki’s score of 48-13 USC sounds about right. But what we will see is the effort that the team will put forth. The team will be past the first-game jitters and all of the hype and talk about the new season and the TV show and all of that. All of that ends on September 4th. After that, it’s he rest of the season. Add on top of that the fact that no one in their right mind (and most people in their wrong mind…) is predicting the ‘Hoos to be competitive against USC. No hype. No pressure. Just a football game. I think those of us that look at more than just the final score will be ok with watching the game film this time. And that’s about all I can ask from the team in this game.

vs. Virginia Military Institute (September 25th)

Tiki – After a bye week, which will be helpful following a cross country road trip, the Hoos face their second I-AA team of the season. Who’s idea was it to face two I-AA teams in the same season? Was it really impossible to find some directional state university in DI-A which needed another game? The NCAA only allows one DI-AA game to count towards bowl eligibility in a given season. So, we actually need to win 7 games this year in order to go to a bowl. Well, if we lose one of these two games, then we’d only need 6. But, if we lose 1 of these games, the rest is irrelevant.

Anyway, back to the game. Like Richmond, VMI is a solid I-AA team. OK, that’s really not true. I was trying to be nice. VMI is terrible. There aren’t really any across the field emotional ties, like there are in the opener. This is really just a glorified scrimmage. With the ACC season starting up, this game is a chance for the Hoos to get the lineups set, get the team settled down, and get everybody ready for the meat of the schedule. Expect to see players with minor injuries sidelined, younger players get significant playing time, and maybe even see the reigning intramural flag football champions get some snaps. Hoos 35, VMI 7. And not near that close.

Tim – Remember the three possible outcomes that I posited when discussing the Richmond game? This game will fall into Outcome 3. VMI is just not good. We’ll see the starters in there in the first half as they effectively run passing and running drills until the scoring margin is wide enough. Then we’ll see London get some playing time for some of the younger folks who we’ll be counting on down the road. Even with the backups in, we’re still the better team by a solid margin. If it’s anything but Outcome 3, I’ll be sorely disappointed. Hoos 42, VMI 10.

vs. Florida State (October 2nd)

Tiki – Why do we play both Florida schools in Virginia? I live in the state of Florida. They couldn’t throw me a bone and give me one game within reasonable driving distance? Oh well.

The Hoos should be 2-1 entering this game. If they are 1-2 (or 0-3), the season is over. If they are 3-0, Mike London will already have a 10 year extension, and we may be the talk of the nation. Regardless of our record entering this game, this is really the beginning of the season. The first 3 games don’t count.

FSU isn’t the team they were in the 90s. They finished 7-6, for the 3^rd time in the past 4 years. Bobby Bowden is gone, and Jimbo Fisher steps in as head coach. That said, there is still a ton of talent on their roster, and they are coming off a Gator Bowl victory over West Virginia. (Off topic, but isn’t that a fitting end for Bowden? Winning his final game at FSU over the school where he started as a head coach.) This could be a serious trap game for FSU. They face Oklahoma, Brigham Young and Wake Forest before us, and travel to Miami the week after playing us. Playing in Charlottesville might just be overlooked.

Of course, the Hoos figure to still be working out the kinks in new offensive and defensive systems. Plus, players will still getting comfortable in new roles. FSU, while incorporating a new head coach, still has largely the same systems in place. And, to put it frankly, is simply more talented than the Hoos. We have a chance at home against just about anybody, so a win in this game would be far from a huge upset. I just don’t see it. FSU 24, Hoos 13.

Tim – I’ll admit, it’ll be strange looking at the FSU sideline and not seeing Bobby Bowden strolling up and down the field. I picked FSU to win the Atlantic, in part because I think the rest of the Atlantic stinks, but also because I think FSU might finally be “back.” FSU is more talented across the board, but not in the way that Southern Cal is. I expect that the Cavaliers will be competitive, especially since this is a home game, but I don’t see them being able to pull it off. That is, unless the ‘Noles are looking forward to the Miami game a little too much. I think it’ll be something like 27-13 with a late FSU touchdown putting the game out of reach for the otherwise competitive ‘Hoos – and making the score look less competitive than the game actually was.

at Georgia Tech (October 9th)

Tiki – It’s the battle of Al Groh. As you may have heard, Al Groh is the new Yellow Jackets’ defensive coordinator. If there is anybody out there who knows his 3-4 defense, it is Mike London. Can he come up with a way to beat it? Difficult to say. We will know a lot more about the UVA offense by this point in the season. More important to the outcome of this game will be our young defense’s ability to shut down Paul Johnson’s famous triple option offense. A year ago, our defense played pretty well early on, but the offense simply couldn’t do anything and this left the defense on the field for a long long time. In the end, the Jackets held the ball for over 42 minutes of the game. If anything like that happens again, we will be slaughtered again.

I think the offense will have a bit more success than a year ago. For one thing, it would be difficult to repeat that performance. Aside from that, the game was played in some terrible weather, which played right into the Jackets hands. The problem is that Josh Nesbitt and the Jacket’s offense is getting better and better. And I just don’t see us being able to stop them on the road. Something tells me this game will be ugly. Jackets 49, Hoos 17.

Tim – I’m a rather big fan of Paul Johnson and his offense. I’m also a rather big fan of Al Groh’s defense (note: I did not say Al Groh’s head coaching). With the two of them on the same sideline, it should come as no surprise that I think the Jackets are going to be quite the formidable opponent this year.

This is one game where I expect to see our reorganized defense have problems. The more simplistic schemes we’re running, and the reliance on talent rather than sophistication will work for us in many games this year, but I’m afraid this isn’t one of them. Like Tiki, I expect our offense to do better this year than it did last year (not because Al Groh’s defense will be worse than the former coordinator’s defense – but instead because I think our offense will actually have some semblance of being productive this year). Overall, I see this as a second double-digit loss in a row for the ‘Hoos – 35-14.

vs. North Carolina (October 16th)

Tiki - At this point in the season, the Hoos are probably under .500 for the first time this season. North Carolina is getting a lot of hype this year as Butch Davis is building a strong program. Their defense is going to be a real force this year, but their offense may still struggle to score points. And, as most readers will know, UNC hasn’t won in Charlottesville since dinosaurs roamed the earth.

We may have trouble scoring points against a very good Tar Heel defense, but they are going to struggle to score against our improving defense. You heard it here first, but the streak continues this year, as the Hoos triumph yet again. Hoos 14, Heels 3 in a snoozefest.

Tim – In my opinion, this game couldn’t come at a worse time… for the Tar Heels. This game comes sandwiched between a tough matchup against Clemson and a big road trip to Miami. My guess is that Georgia Tech will have already beaten the Heels and Carolina will be especially interested in that game with Miami. The Canes are going to be a competitor for the Coastal title, Virginia is not, right? Add on top of that the potential distractions of whatever penalties are levied at the team, and you’ve got the makings of a Tar Heel squad that will be vulnerable that week in Charlottesville.

This also turns out to be the most winnable FBS game in the first half of the season for the Cavaliers. USC, FSU and GT are all better teams. Carolina is better than Virginia on paper, but we all know what happens when they come to the Hook, right? I see history repeating itself with the ‘Hoos pulling off the upset in quite a fun game. I’ll say 21-17.

Recap

So, the first half of the first season of the Mike London era ends at 3-3, albeit with two wins over I-AA teams. Considering the schedule, this isn’t a huge surprise. We’ve gotten (perhaps) our two toughest road games out of the way, and have some winnable games in the second half. Anything better than 3-3 would be close to a miracle. Anything worse than 2-4 would be whatever the opposite of a miracle is.