Dear Old U.Va.

2010 Football Previews–USC

Tuesday, September 07 2010 by Tiki

As predicted, the Hoos travel to Los Angeles with a 1-0 record, after their in over Richmond. The team’s performance against the Spiders was impressive, as the 3 TD margin of victory implies. So, what does that game tell us heading forward? Are we a legitimate threat to the USC Trojans? Let’s take a look.

UVA on Offense

The offensive performance that we had last week was, frankly, a thing of beauty. Over 200 yards on the ground, plus almost 300 in the air, combining for 488 total yards. That is the most the team has had in several years, with the exclusion of the Indiana game last year which was a complete outlier. Of course, it is possible that last week was an outlier as well. It just doesn’t seem that way.

As far as gameplan goes, I think we should expect to see a very similar offense to what we saw last week. Obviously, the defense that we are facing is bigger and strong, not to mention deeper and more talented. That is not going to stop Coach Lazor and Coach London from wanting to run their offense. We should still see the same trapping guards on off-tackle runs, the same play action passes off QB bootlegs, and the same attempts at deep passes in certain situations. The success of these plays will likely decrease, but I doubt we’ll change much. And I hope we don’t change much. After all, why mess with success?

Considering the performance of the USC secondary last week against Hawaii, they are probably hoping we’ll try to run the ball as much as possible. That said, this may be a case of wishful thinking. Hawaii runs a vastly different offense to the one we will display, with a nearly 2:1 pass-to-run ratio. And Hawaii did average well over 4 yards per carry. At the very least, the USC front 7 is bigger than Richmond’s was, meaning RB Keith Payne is not likely to carry defenders for 10 yards after contact on every play.

That front 7 is led by a couple of senior LBs, Malcolm Smith and Michael Morgan. Smith was second on the team in tackles a year ago, and Morgan was first in TFL. Their Defensive Line will also be tougher to push around, as the starters average almost 300 pounds and they will rotate at least 3 or 4 other guys in and out. Hawaii’s offensive line played well, and was able to neutralize the USC pass rush for the most part. Our line will have to do the same, in particular keeping DEs Wes Horton and Armond Armstead out of the backfield.

In the secondary, the Trojans are led by senior CB Shareece Wright, but by just about any measure this is the weak link in the Trojans defense. All 4 starters from last year are gone, and as Hawaii showed, the newcomers have some growing up to do. None of the USC CBs are very big, so expect another strong game from 6’3” WR Dontrelle Inman.

Historically, USC has had some great safeties, including last year’s leading tackler Taylor Mays. Even with the talent USC has had at LB over the years, they often have a safety as their leading playmaker. This year, the safeties are sophomores TJ McDonald and Jawanza Starling, and while both are talented, neither of them are ready to lead a defense. QB Marc Verica should be able to use play action to force some mistakes out of those two. Of course, this will be easier if we have some success running the ball.

In all, the UVA offense looked fairly dangerous last week, against a pretty good defense (even if it is I-AA). The USC defense is undoubtedly deeper, and full of bigger, stronger and faster players. But the USC defensive scheme isn’t a whole lot different from Richmond’s and they gave up almost 600 yards to Hawaii.

Don’t expect 600 yards from us, because frankly that isn’t our game. But I expect us to show some success moving the ball. Turnovers will be key, as will taking advantage of the opportunities we are given. That means converting on our FG attempts, and that means continuing the red zone success, where we were 5/5 last week.

UVA on Defense

Last week, the Wahoo defense gave up 333 total yards to the Spiders, including 144 on the ground. Considering that 70 yards of that came on one fluke play, and there were a few other big gains that came from broken plays and QB scrambles, that’s an admirable performance.

Of course, we can’t simply discount the yards from broken plays. They count just the same. The defense needs to learn from those plays. They need to work on wrapping up ballcarriers, and more importantly, they need to work on maintaining their coverage when a play breaks down. USC QB Matt Barkley isn’t quite as mobile as Corp is, but he is still capable of using his legs to make plays. Most likely, he will get out of the pocket, looking to make plays with his arm, as opposed to actually running the football. Again, this makes it crucial that defenders continue their responsibility when Barkley gets out of the pocket, instead of chasing after him and leaving potential receivers open.

As usual, USC has a bunch of options at RB. Junior Marc Tyler got a majority of the carries last week, and figures to do the same against us. He is a bigger back, much more in the LenDale White mold than the Reggie Bush mold. His primary backups are seniors Allen Bradford and CJ Gable, both big backs who run with power. Not to be ignored, senior FB Stanley Havili is a weapon both as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield. Havili is also an outstanding lead blocker. Havili had a 49 yard reception last week, so clearly we must keep an eye on him.

Blocking for all those big backs is an OL with 3 returning starters. The leader of the line is senior C Kristofer O’Dowd. Fellow senior Butch Lewis starts at LG and junior Tyron Smith starts at RT. The newcomers are sophomores Matt Kalil (LT) and Khaled Holmes (RG). USC will actually rotate a few players in and out on the OL, depending on how the game is progressing. None of the USC linemen weigh more than about 300 pounds, so our trio of DTs Nick Jenkins, Matt Conrath and John-Kevin Dolce should have some success against those interior guys.

It seems like this year is somewhat of a down year for USC in terms of playmakers at WR. That said, it’s not as if they lack talent there. It is just largely unproven. Their leading returning receiver is senior Ronald Johnson, who caught 34 balls for just 378 yards last year. Johnson led the team with 7 receptions last week. What they might lack in top level talent, they make up for in depth. Eight players caught at least 1 pass last week, including Robert Woods, the #1 HS Athlete a year ago. USC also boasts Kyle Prater and Markeith Ambles, two of the top 5 HS WR prospects a year ago. Ambles played last week, Prater did not. Either one could play this week, and both are big and fast. Having CB Ras-I Dowling and/or S Rodney McLeod return would be a big boost to the secondary, which played well despite the two missing starters, but still made some mistakes. The early word is that Dowling should be available, while McLeod will be a gametime decision. Either way, CBs Chase Minnifield and Devin Wallace will have to be strong in coverage, as they were last week.

The USC offense revolves around sophomore Barkley. His story is well known. He lost out on the starting job before last season began, to Aaron Corp (Richmond’s QB for those of you suffering from short term memory loss), but regained it when Corp went down with a leg injury. Barkley started out last season on fire, but cooled down as their schedule got tougher, and teams got more film on him. Barkley was phenomenal against Hawaii, completing almost 80% of his passes, for 257 yards and 5 TDs. Barkley has a strong arm, good athleticism and seemingly tons of moxie. It isn’t common for true freshmen QB to start for championship caliber teams, but Barkley did just that. Despite some late season stumbles, Barkley handled himself very well. He figures to be the next in the line of USC QBs to be drafted high in the NFL draft. We may see some of former Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain as well.

Conclusion

While I was very impressed by some things I saw against Richmond, it doesn’t really change much about this game. USC is far too deep and talented to let a Virginia team come into the Coliseum and beat them. I am optimistic that our revamped defense will hold its own against a potent USC offense, and I am hopeful that our new offense will be able to move the ball at times.

USC showed some vulnerability last week, but that game was on the road, and it was against a very good Hawaii offense. Despite their struggles, USC managed to put up 49 points and the outcome of the game was never really in doubt. USC had a ton of big plays, both on offense and on special teams. Those special teams plays could be back-breakers against us. Richmond’s special teams almost burned us a few times, and USC’s return men are far more explosive. My initial prediction was 48-13 Trojans, and I haven’t seen enough in one week to alter that projection. And I reiterate that I expect to be reasonably happy with this, based on effort and performance if not the ultimate outcome.

Trojans 48, Hoos 13.