Dear Old U.Va.

2009 Football Previews: Miami

Wednesday, November 04 2009 by Tiki

First of all, allow me to apologize for not writing much about the past two games. I attended the games, and then spend the following couple of days recovering the trip. Had the games been somewhat less depressing, I might’ve written something, but I simply could not bring myself to write anything.

Last week’s game was just about the last straw for many Virginia fans. The announced attendance of about 41 thousand is laughable. I looked around the stadium at various points during the game, and I would be surprised if the actual attendance was much over 30 thousand. Still, 41 thousand is the number of tickets sold, and that is the important thing because tickets sold is revenue.

Next year, those numbers may be lower because season ticket sales will decline. This makes the job of Craig Littlepage all the more difficult. He must find a football coach that will excite the fan base, entice people to purchase season tickets and actually attend games. This is aside from finding a football coach that will be successful on the field. Of course, success on the field will drive ticket sales, but that takes time. How far will the program fall before it is righted will depend largely on the new coach. I hope we make the correct choice.

That said, let’s take a look at this week’s matchup, in Miami. As most Virginia fans remember, and most Hurricane fans would love to forget, the last time these two teams met in Miami the Hoos left with a 48-0 win in the Orange Bowl’s finale. That was the most shocking game I’ve ever witnessed, especially so when you consider it was the first ever win for Virginia football in the entire state of Florida.

The two teams that play this week are not the same teams that matched up 2 years ago. The Hurricanes are 6-2, ranked #17 in the current BCS standings, and seemingly on their way back to national prominence. The Hoos are 3-5, just lost to Duke for the second consecutive time, and have begun the process of hiring a new coach.

Virginia on Offense

Sadly, I expect to see us use the same offensive game plan we have seen the past couple of weeks. Similarly to the last two opponents, Miami has a fairly mediocre defense, at least based on national rankings. Their run defense is ranked 52^nd nationally, while their pass defense is 66^th. Total defense is 52^nd and scoring defense is 61^st. On paper at least, this is a very balanced defense.

So clearly, we should throw the ball roughly 50% more than we run it. I mean, we’re so good at passing the ball, aren’t we? (Please note the sarcastic tone.) Jameel Sewell and Marc Verica combined to complete 13 out of 38 passes last week. That’s a 34% completion rate. The team with the worst completion percentage in the nation is Army, at 43%. Damn. I promised myself I would not go off on tangents about last week’s game and yet here I am. This is why I didn’t end up writing a game recap. I was (and remain) way too riled up.

Miami is 9^th in the country in tackles for loss. That is very high for a team that doesn’t stop either the run or the pass very well. Their front 4 are not very big, averaging just over 260 pounds. Not surprisingly, they are very quick. Outside runs will probably not work very well against this defense, but running between the tackles should work. This is especially true with a big back like Rashawn Jackson.

Similarly, their LBs are small and fast. This really does seem like a typical Miami defense, doesn’t it? Speed, speed, speed. Anyway, the LBs, much like the DLs will run down anything to the outside. They will also use their quickness to get into the backfield. Runs up the middle, including draw plays should work well. Screen passes also could be a big weapon.

Miami has long been known for having some great players in the secondary. This year, it does not necessarily appear to be the case. The strength of this defense is the front 7. Randy Phillips has turned into a quality safety, after failing initially as a CB. He leads the team with 2 interceptions, out of only 5 total for the team. CB Brandon Harris is a good cover guy and has 12 passes defensed on the season, to go along with 42 total tackles (3^rd on the team behind 2 starting LBs). But none of the 4 starting DBs are really on the level of great Miami DBs like S Ed Reed and CB Antrel Rolle.

Another reason for us to run the ball a lot is that Miami’s defense is lacking in depth, largely due to injuries. Missing from the starting lineup is LB Sean Spence, DE Eric Moncur, DE Adewale Ojomo, DT Marcus Fortson and S Ryan Hill. Also missing are reserves DE Dyron Dye, LB Jordan Futch, LB Shayon Green, DE Gavin Hardin, CB RayRay Armstrong, and S JoJo Nicholas. That is a lot of depth and talent to make up.

As I said, I think we should run the ball inside, setting up play action for some deep shots. We should use screen passes, and misdirection to slow down Miami’s penetration into the backfield. However, based on what I’ve seen on the field, I expect to see us throw a lot of quick slants and deep outs. Running plays will probably be off tackle and some read option.

Virginia on Defense

Miami’s offense is actually fairly similar to Duke’s. They have more speed at WR, and more talent at RB, but QB Jacory Harris is very much like Thaddeus Lewis, and their gameplan is likely to be a lot like we saw last week. Harris, like Lewis, is a mobile QB who will use this ability to make plays in the passing game, as opposed to trying to run for yards.

Miami’s rushing offense is 95^th in the nation. This is somewhat misleading, as Jacory Harris has been sacked a lot. Still, the Canes are much deadlier through the air than on the ground. Their veteran OL is huge, with each player checking it at over 300 pounds. Despite their size, they are really not a superior group. As I said, Harris has been sacked a lot, 116^th in the nation. Some of this is due to Harris’ running around the backfield trying to make plays, as opposed to the OL just getting beat.

Miami has 3 different backs with over 300 yards rushing, each of whom average well over 4 yards per carry. Leading rusher Javarris James missed last week’s matchup against Wake Forest with a “lower extremity” injury. Seriously, that’s what the injury report says. I don’t know what that means, and I’m pretty sure I don’t want to. Anyway, if he plays, he’ll get most of the carries. If not, Greg Cooper will. The third of the triumvirate is Damien Berry, who may see a series here and there. All three are similar in stature, with James, the senior being a bit bigger than the other two, both juniors.

The Canes are similarly deep at WR. Leading receiver Leonard Hankerson has only 3 catches more than Travis Benjamin, who is just 1 ahead of LaRon Byrd. Byrd is the possession guy, with Benjamin is the speedster. Hankerson is more of an all around WR, possessing adequate size and speed. Senior TE Derrick Epps is 4^th on the team in receptions. Harris is very good at spreading the ball around, as 16 different Canes have at least 1 receptions, with 6 of those having double digit receptions. The backs are also a big part of the passing game, with a combined 28 receptions.

The Hoos will, once again, play a lot of substitution defenses, in an effort to get more pass rushers on the field, as well as more cover guys. Because of this, Miami may try to run the ball more. The safeties, Rodney Mcleod, Corey Mosley and Brandon Woods will have to be quick in their reads, so they can help out against the run, while also not getting beat deep. Similarly, the CBs need to help out in run support on the edges, because Miami’s RBs all have the speed to get outside and make big plays. Again, they must be ware of getting beat deep.

Again, I expect to see us in a lot of zone coverage. We got a lot of pressure on Duke with just 4 pass rushers, and the few times we brought extra pass rushers, we seemed to get beat. The biggest, of course, being the long TD pass that gave Duke the lead. Chris Cook was matched up in tight man coverage, while the safeties blitzed. Cook got beat on a quick slant, and there was nobody behind him to make a tackle. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen again, because Miami’s WRs are more talented than Duke’s.

Conclusion

On paper, this isn’t a bad matchup for the Hoos. Miami is a talented team, but they haven’t always played up to their talent level. For a team with such a big offensive line, and so much talent at RB, they average only 3.5 yards per carry. They really live and die with Jacory Harris. He is supremely talented, but young and error-prone. If the Hoos can force him into making some plays, they are certainly capable of shutting down the Canes’ offense.

The Hoos offense has been hurt by dropped passes, poor decision making and frankly, bad coaching. This team needs to be a running offense, using play action and some deep passes to keep the defense honest. For some reason, we are a passing offense that uses off tackle runs as its primary running play.

Again, on paper, this should be a close matchup. However, the game isn’t played on paper, it’s played on a football field. And on that field, Miami is a more talented, better prepared team. Still, for whatever reason, I think the game will be close.

Prediction: Canes 24, Hoos 14