Dear Old U.Va.

2009 Football Previews: Georgia Tech

Monday, October 19 2009 by Tiki

Following 3 straight losses to begin the season, and a lot of heartache and gloom among Wahoo fans, the Hoos have reeled off 3 straight wins, including 2 conference road games, and currently sit in first place in the ACC. This week, the 11^th ranked Yellow Jackets come into town riding a high after beating the Hokies on Saturday.

As most Virginia fans know, Georgia Tech has not won in Charlottesville since 1990. And the Hoos have won 2 of the last 3 in Atlanta, after having lost 4 in a row in Atlanta. Is this the year that the Jackets can break the curse? Or will the curse of Scott Sisson remain in tact?

Virginia on Offense

The Virginia offense continues to be a hit or miss affair, with a lot more misses that hits. The chart below shows the offensive output for the games this season.

Is it possible that the problem was not with Mike Groh? Is it possible that Gregg Brandon has not been given as much authority with the offense as we thought he might? How does a team go from over 500 yards to barely 200 yards in the span of a week?

Clearly the game conditions were part of the problem, as was the loss of Mikell Simpson. The offensive line’s performance wasn’t very good, and the Maryland blitz packages seemed to give the offense fits all game long. But the playcalling was also at issue. Gone were the quick passes into the flats that worked so well against Indiana. In its place, the QB draws returned, especially on short yard plays. I have been harping on this all season long, but I will continue to do so until somebody actually takes notice. The QB draw is a good play to run from time to time, because it can catch the defense napping. But when you run it time and time again on short yardage, the defense knows it is coming and is prepared.

The Yellow Jackets play a base 4-3 defense, although they call one of the safeties a “rover”. It is somewhat of a hybrid LB/S, but realistically, it’s just a safety that comes up to help in run support. That position is manned by Morgan Burnett, a junior who led the team in tackles and interceptions last year and is currently third in tackles and tops with 4 interceptions.

Burnett leads a talented, experienced secondary that is probably the strength of the defense. The other safety is fellow junior Dominique Reese, more of a centerfielder type, Reese is much better in pass defense than in run support. Finally, the CBs are Mario Butler and Jarrad Tarrant. Both CBs (and Reese for that matter) are on the small side, and can be beaten by more physical receivers.

Georgia Tech lost 3 starters off their DL. Michael Johnson, Darryl Richard, and Vance Walker were all defensive playmakers last year, and all 3 are gone. The lone returning starter is DE Derrick Morgan, who is far and away the best pass rusher they’ve got. He has 7.5 sacks on the season, out of a team total of 12. He has 10.5 TFL, out of a team total of 32. Clearly, he must be a focus of the OL all game long. The Jackets also feature veteran LBs with ILB Brad Jefferson leading the team in tackles, and OLB Sedric Griffin second.

On paper, this defense looks fantastic, with a deep, experienced LB corps and a talented secondary that already has 7 interceptions on the season. However, GT ranks 108^th nationally in pass defense, 68^th in rushing defense, 78^th in total defense and 72^nd in scoring defense.

Those defensive rankings remind me of Indiana’s rankings. Again, on paper their defense should be much better than IU’s, but in practice they have been underwhelming. Clemson threw for 268 yards, while rushing for 125. Miami tore them up for 270 yards through the air and 184 on the ground. Mississippi State had 278 in the air and 209 on the ground. Florida State had 359 in the air and 180 on the ground. Finally, Virginia Tech, not exactly an offensive juggernaut, went for 159 in the air and 175 on the ground. I should note that, other than Miami, all those teams lost.

Assuming we do not play the same overly conservative gameplan that we had this past weekend, we should be able to move the ball, regardless of who is at QB and RB. Obviously, it would be nice to have Jameel Sewell and Mikell Simpson healthy, but a Marc Verica and Rashawn Jackson combination should suffice. Jackson, this week, actually might be more successful that Simpson, because of his ability to run between the tackles. Georgia Tech’s DTs are small and not that good, and Jackson should be able to make some plays inside. I really hope that any QB runs we call are inside runs, right up the middle, as opposed to the stupid off-tackle play that has been so prevalent this season.

Whether it is Sewell or Verica at QB, they need to be careful with any perimeter throws. GT’s secondary is full of ball-hawks who will try to jump these routes. A double move, such as an out and up, could be very successful, and we certainly have the WRs to pull it off, with Tim Smith, Jared Green and Kris Burd all showing the capability to get open deep downfield.

Virginia on Defense

Georgia Tech runs a full out spread offense, with the QB in shotgun on every play. They will throw, throw, throw, over and over again and force…wait that’s not right.  Let me start over.

Georgia Tech runs Paul Johnson’s triple option offense. QB Josh Nesbitt is the primary ball carrier and decision maker. They don’t throw the ball much, only about 11 times per game, but they go for big plays when they do. You won’t see very many screens or quick slants from this team. Leading receiver Demarius Thomas has 27 catches out of the team’s 40, and averages almost 25 yards per reception. The other 13 catches have gone for an average of over 21 yards each.

Here is a quick primer on GT’s triple option for those who haven’t watched them play at all. Nesbitt will line up under center, with a RB (usually Jonathon Dwyer) 4-5 yards behind him. This back is called the “B-back”, in their system. A wing back will line up on either side of the line, about a yard behind the LOS. Those wing backs are usually Roddy Jones and Anthony Allen (a Louisville transfer playing his first year in the triple option), although there are a few others who will line up in these positions. These wing backs are called the “A-backs”.

Nesbitt will take the snap and take a step back. The B-back will come up the middle and Nesbitt will hold the ball out for him. Now is Nesbitt’s first decision. He either hands the ball to the back, for a run up the middle, or pulls it back. In either case, the B-back will crash into the middle of the line, while Nesbitt rolls away to one side. If Nesbitt hands the ball to the B-back, obviously the option part of the play is over. If Nesbitt pulls the ball back, that is when the play gets interesting.

Nesbitt can now roll out to either side. The A-back on that side will roll with him, a few yards behind him, and a few yards to his outside shoulder. Nesbitt will run along the line of scrimmage looking for a crease. If he finds one, he will take it and head upfield. If not, he will wait for the outside defender to commit to him and then he will pitch to the A-back. The A-back’s job is then to head upfield.

There are, of course, many wrinkles that Paul Johnson can incorporate. He can move the backs around, putting Dwyer in the A-back role. One of the more common moves they will make is to swing the A-back from one side around behind the B-back and use him as the pitch man, with the other A-back working as a blocker for Nesbitt. You may also see Dwyer run a simple off tackle play from the same formation. The defense, especially the front 7 must be ready for all these possibilities.

So that all sounds pretty complicated, huh? Stopping it is no less complicated. This is one week where the 3-4 defense is actually ideally suited to stopping the opposition. The first part of the offense, the dive play by the B-back, must be stopped by the interior defenders (the NT, and 2 ILBs, with help from the safeties). Obviously, this is easier said that done. Especially since the interior of GT’s OL is very good. LG Cord Howard is big, strong and tough at the point of attack. C Sean Bedford and RG Joseph Gilbert are smaller and younger, but both are still capable of getting to the second level and giving Dwyer a seam (and trust me, Dwyer does not need much room).

Assuming the inside handoff is taken care of, the job of the DEs is to get off the block from the tackle and play the QB. Ideally, the DE will get penetration into the backfield and force Nesbitt to either take a step back, or pitch the ball before he would like. The OLBs, with help from the CBs, are assigned to the pitchman. The CBs, of course, must wait before committing, because if they let the WRs go by, Nesbitt can beat them long. The WRs will usually be blocking, either upfield on the CBs, or a crackback block on the OLB.

All of that sounds pretty easy, right? Well, thank you, because that was my goal. Of course, it isn’t that simple. Nesbitt has gotten very good at faking the inside handoff and freezing the OLBs. He is also very good at making decisions on when to pitch. If the OTs can keep the DEs from getting in Nesbitt’s face, he is going to get yards. This is why I think the 3-4 is ideal. Our DEs are bigger than a typical 4-3 DE, and therefore more suited to get off a one-on-block from the OT. The Yellow Jacket’s OTs are not all that big, although they are both very athletic. Having Matt Conrath back would be a big bonus, but Zane Parr and Nate Collins are both capable of consistently getting penetration into the offensive backfield.

The key to stopping the Jackets this weekend is going to be stopping Dwyer. If we can bottle up Dwyer inside, without needing a lot of support from the perimeter defenders, we should be able to keep the offense down. Forcing Nesbitt outside makes him make decisions. Against Virginia Tech, he made a lot of plays. Some of them were good, and some were bad. He had at least 3 fumbles on pitch attempts. Those plays can be big for our defense, which has thrived on forcing turnovers over the past 3 weeks.

Conclusion

Both of these teams are going to be very hyped for this game. Georgia Tech is nearly done with their conference schedule, and would need one Miami defeat to win the Coastal if they win out. The Hoos, on the other hand, currently reside in first place, and don’t need any help at all. Obviously, with 6 remaining conference games, winning out would be no easy task. Still, controlling our own destiny is nice.

The time of this game sucks. I would much prefer a night game, or even afternoon. It is harder for fans to get up for a noon game, and the gameday atmosphere will be somewhat subdued. Currently, the weather forecast is for rain, which also hurts the home team. Again, it will keep the crowd down, and rain will likely aid the Jackets’ offense.

With all this stuff factoring against us, along with the fact that the Jackets are a very good team, I am surprised that we are only 4 point underdogs right now. Obviously, the Jackets defense is not as bad as the numbers show. Or maybe that isn’t so obvious. We are halfway through the season, and their defense has been gashed in 4 out of their 6 games. The only teams that didn’t are IAA Jacksonville State and a UNC offense that is 117^th nationally in total offense. We should be able to move the ball on them, and we should be able to score.

On the other hand, GT’s offense is really coming into its own. If Nesbitt doesn’t make mistakes, he is deadly running the ball. The combination of him and Dwyer make this offense work. We held them to just 17 points last year, in Atlanta. If we can do that again, it would be a full two touchdowns less than their season average. I think if we win, it will be more of a shootout.

Prediction: For the first time in Dear Old UVA history, I am going to hedge my bets a little bit. If Jameel Sewell and Mikell Simpson both play, I think we win 33-27. With one or both of them out, I think we lose 34-20. Yes, I think those two are that important to our team. Especially this week, when offensive production keeps GT’s potent offense off the field.

As an aside, three of our writers here at Dear Old U.Va. (Melbournehoo, Tim and myself) will be at the game this weekend in Charlottesville. Our tailgate spot will be in the East K lot next to the physics building. Feel free to stop by and say hi, grab a drink, talk some football and ask us for autographs :)