Dear Old U.Va.

2009 Football Previews: Clemson

Thursday, November 19 2009 by Tiki

Another week, another poor performance. The Hoos had many chances to beat Boston College last week, but could not make the plays they needed to make. Boston College is a decent team, but they played a bad game and still beat us. If we can’t win a home game against a team that comes out and lays an egg, what’s the point?

This week, we go down to Clemson, SC for the first time since 2003 (yay ACC expansion!). The Tigers need a win to clinch the Atlantic Division title. Actually, that’s not necessarily true, because BC plays UNC at noon. If BC loses, Clemson clinches and then our game is meaningless for them. If BC wins, then Clemson has to beat us.

Why should we even show up? The season is over. The players have given up, the fans have given up, and I’m pretty sure the administration has given us as well. I wonder what the penalty would be for not showing up. Fines? Suspensions? At least if we don’t show up, I don’t have to watch us and get mad.

Anyway, assuming we actually do show up, in body if not in spirit, let’s take a look at the matchups.

Virginia on Offense

We have no offense. None. Zero. I joked last week that we might be better off just playing defense all game and keeping the offense off the field. Well, that’s what happened last week and we still lost. At least we were competitive. What’s that? Our offense was there? They played? I have no recollection of that.

The offense accounted for 3 drives that matter. One ended with an interception at the goalline. One ended in a 38 yard Robert Randolph FG. The last one ended on a failed 4^th down conversion with under 20 seconds left in the game. One other drive (our first) picked up 37 yards. No other drive picked up more than 1 first down. And once again, our defense was on the field for well over half the game.

Clemson plays a base 4-3 defense that is predicated on pressure. They will blitz LBs and DB. They also run blitz quite a bit. As a team, they have 26 sacks (1st in the ACC) and 78 TFLs (2nd). Considering the Hoos are 113th nationally in sacks allowed and 107th in TFLs allowed, the Clemson defense must be licking their chops.

The Clemson defense is #14 in the nation in total defense, #20 in scoring defense. They are 15^th in pass defense, but just 46^th in rush defense. It stands to reason that if we are going to be successful at all, it will be running the ball. Why am I not confident that this will happen? Perhaps it is because I have screaming at the top of my lungs for 2 months that we should be running the ball, and yet we continue to pass, pass, pass. Have I mentioned that I am not a fan of our offensive game plan?

Clemson has 4 defenders who are all very close in tackles. LBs Brandon Maye and Kavell Connor, along with S DeAndre McDaniel and DB Marcus Gilchrist are all within 8 total tackles of each other. Despite this, the strength of the Clemson defense is their DL. They have great depth, as they rotate 5 DEs and 5 DTs. Those 10 players have combined for 50 TFL and 16 sacks. The biggest star is DE Ricky Sapp, a senior who is likely a first or second round draft pick. Sapp has 10 TFLs and 4 sacks, both lead the team.

As good as Clemson’s defense is, and as bad as our offense is, I would be surprised if we scored at all. Hopefully, the defense or special teams can make some plays to give us a short field. Our offense is not going to drive down the field against this defense.

Virginia on Defense

Clemson’s offense revolves around senior RB CJ Spiller. For the past 3 years, Spiller shared time at RB with James Davis, but now he gets the spotlight all to himself. Despite splitting time, Spiller is already the ACC career leader in all purpose yardage. He is one the greatest all around players ever to play college football. Spiller also runs track for the Tigers, and is a world class sprinter. He will likely be a top 10 pick in the NFL draft.

Considering the trouble Virginia has had with some of the better backs on their schedule, Spiller figures to have a big game. Clemson’s ground game is 43^rd in the nation, but their passing game is just 81^st. Senior WR Jacoby Ford, another track star, is their leading receiver with 39 receptions for over 500 yards. Junior Terrence Ashe is the starter opposite Ford, but he has just 11 catches on the season.

At QB, freshman Kyle Parker is nothing special. Starting as a freshman is impressive, and he may turn out to be a very good signal caller, but so far this year he has not impressed. He does have a 16:9 touchdown to interception ratio, which is solid, but his 54% completion rate leaves something to be desired.

We will probably see less of the substitution defenses this week, because Clemson will run the ball on any down, and doesn’t have much depth at WR. The biggest thing our defenders must do is keep to their assignments. Spiller is a great cut back runner, and can very quickly make a big play out of nothing. We must do a good job of keeping him in front and not giving up the big play. If you can keep Spiller to a 3-4 yard carry consistently, you can be successful. Clemson’s offense is designed to make the big play. Despite their mediocre national rankings in yardage, they are 20^th nationally in scoring offense. Between Spiller and Ford, they create a lot of big plays.

Clemson will also use play action, especially once the running game has been successful. I have seen both Ford and Spiller uncovered on deep routes several times this year, because the defense lost them on play action. Our DBs have to be aggressive coming up to help in the run, but they must also be wary of getting beat deep. Obviously, this is a difficult job, but it is necessary.

We should be able to contain the Clemson offense to some degree, but as usual the offense must bail them out. If the defense is forced to stay on the field for 35 minutes again, Spiller and the Clemson offense will wear them down, as has happened far too often this season.

Conclusion

We are going to lose this game, I do not think there is any doubt left. I have been attempting to be optimistic with my predictions, either picking a win or a close loss. I do not think Clemson is type of teams that blows people out, so I think we may well keep it close. Then again, I thought the same about Miami and we all know how that turned out.

One thing I did not mention is special teams. Spiller has 4 special teams TDs this season, and Ford has 1. We simply can not give up a return TD if we are going to be successful. Clemson’s offense is predicated on the big play, and is not very good at working methodically down the field. Giving them points without the offense doing anything makes their job that much easier.

Prediction: Tigers 30, Hoos 10