2008 Game Previews: Clemson
Tuesday, November 18 2008 by Tiki
The Clemson Tigers started the 2008 season with high hopes. Those hopes were crushed in a season opening blowout loss to Alabama. At the time, nobody knew Bama would be the #1 team in the nation, so this loss was devastating. Three consecutive blowout wins brought the Clemson fan base off the ledge. But right after that, the wheels began falling off.
The Tigers lost 3 consecutive ACC games, including home games to Maryland and Wake Forest. In those 3 games, they scored a total of 41 points. During that run, Tigers head coach Tommy Bowden resigned and was replaced by WRs coach Dabo Swinney. There were rumors of a minor mutiny among the players, which may have led the Bowden’s resignation.
Since the coaching change, the Tigers are 2-2, with wins over BC and Duke, and losses to GT and FSU. The Tigers, like the Hoos, sit at 5-5, although 2 of their wins are over IAA teams. Since the NCAA allows only one IAA win to count towards bowl eligibility, the Tigers need to win out to reach a bowl game. The Hoos, on the other hand, would become bowl eligible with a win. This is the third consecutive time I have said that. Hopefully this week, they come through. Because I want to attend a bowl game.
What we need to do on Offense
My mantra will remain the same. Run the Damn Ball. Even if we aren’t all that successful with the running plays, we must make the defense respect the run. We cannot ask Mark Verica to drop back over and over again and sling the ball over the field. It doesn’t work. While Verica has put up some impressive passing yardage, good for 2nd in the ACC in yards per game, at exactly 200 yards/game. (First place is Clemson QB Cullen Harper, at just over 207 yards/game.) Verica, however, is 6th in the conference in passer rating, largely due to his 8:12 TD to INT ratio.
Discounting the first 3 games, when we clearly were not the same team we are now, in games where we throw the ball 40+ times we lose, and when we throw less than 40 times, we win. Perhaps next year, when Verica has an extra year under his belt and our young WRs and young OL are a year older, we can be successful throwing the ball all over the place. But right, it is clear that our best offensive weapon is Cedric Peerman. It is criminal when he receives only 12 carries in a game, as he did against Wake Forest. Is it surprising that our biggest win of the season, a road win against Georgia Tech, game with Peerman receiving 25 carries plus another 5 receptions?
The playcalling, on the part of Mike Groh and the offensive coaching staff, has to change. It isn’t only a matter of running versus passing. There are issues with the types of runs that are called, and the types of passes that are called. There are long passes called on 3rd and short. There are short passes called on 3rd and long. There are far too many shotgun formations on 3rd and short. There are far too many low percentage calls on 1st down. I think I speak for all Virginia fans when I say that we are tired of seeing this ineptitude on offense. There is far too much talent on that side of the ball for us to be 112th in the nation in offense (and that includes dead last in the ACC).
What we need to do on Defense
Despite having two of the top RBs in the nation, Clemson is just 8th in the conference in rushing. Their passing game, however, is tops in the ACC, at almost 230 yards per game. Still, we must concentrate on stopping the RB duo of James Davis and CJ Spiller. Spiller is the quicker of the two, and is a constant threat to take any place to the house. Davis, however, is a power back who thrives between the tackles. Running between the tackles is something we have struggled all season to stop, due largely to the inability of the DL to hold their ground at the point of attack.
We will need to ensure that the interior of the defense is stout. If we can shut down Davis, and string Spiller out, we can be successful against the run. I am more confident about our ability to shut down the Clemson passing game. The Clemson OL has struggled all year to protect him, and he has been sacked 21 times, along with throwing 12 interceptions.
Despite their talent at RB, the Tigers do not have the same talent at WR. Their top WR is Aaron Kelly, who is 4th in the conference in receptions per game, but averages just 10 yards per catch. CJ Spiller is also a big threat out of the backfield. He is 3rd on the team in receptions and tops in yards per catch. They will hit Spiller on screens, as well as using him as a checkdown receiver in the middle of the field. Spiller is elusive, and we will need to make sure we bring him down when we get there, especially on 3rd downs. Stopping the Clemson offense on 3rd down, only to have Spiller break tackles and pick up a first down, would be a killer blow to the defense.
Conclusion
Once again, it is difficult to say which Virginia team will show up. The first half team against Miami? Or the first half team against Wake Forest? Clemson’s offense is full of weapons, and has a veteran QB who knows how to get the ball to his playmakers. We are not going to shut them down. That means we must score points.
If the offense remains balanced and does not turn the ball over, we should be able to get in the endzone against a mediocre defense. If we revert to the offense we’ve seen too much this season, we may again struggle to put points on the board. Ball security is a must, we simply have to win the turnover battle this week. Luckily, Clemson is dead last in the ACC in turnover margin (Virginia is 9th).
I am beginning to get fed up with this team. I love my Hoos, but they are tough to watch. The offense struggles to gain any momentum, and the defense struggles to get stops at critical times. When the team plays well, they look like world beaters. When they are not playing well, they look like the worst team in the world. How is one to guess which team will show up?
After beginning the season 7-0 in predictions, I am 0-3 since. This week, I’m predicting a loss, 24-15. I am hoping that my recent run of futility continues, and I am wrong again.