Dear Old U.Va.

Reviewing the ACC Hoops Schedule: Part I

Tuesday, November 03 2009 by Ben

The non-conference schedule preview is here and here.

Going down the conference schedule, in some ways the Cavs appear to have lucked out:

• Duke and UNC only appear once each. Duke comes to JPJ, too.
• They play home-and-aways with two of the worst, in my opinion, teams in the league (other than UVa): NC State and Miami.
• The schedule is front-loaded with a winnable/home games, which allows the team to get used to Bennett's new system under the rigors of the ACC.
• The two best teams they play twice are Georgia Tech and Maryland; both of which could be inconsistent.  Georgia Tech is a very young team. Maryland, well, it's just a hallmark of any Maryland season to be inconsistent.

However, there's a catch. I don't want to belabor this point too much (because I'll beat it to death later): this isn't last year's ACC, where the top was outstanding and the middle was less than mediocre.  The middle is actually pretty good this year.

That's while I'll never understand the logic of people who reason that "if you get 7 wins in the ACC, you should be a NCAA tournament team." What a bunch of hooey that is.  Conference strength varies from year to year.  You have to judge each team on its merits, not by some pre-ordained formula.

That being said, I'm not nearly as optimistic this year.  I love the Bennett hire - certainly - but this is an especially tough year to be getting your sea legs under you.

In the past, I've taken you through the games, previewing each team.  Let's try another tact, shall we?

Good team that Virginia will give fits: Wake Forest

Gaudio has changed the profile of this team from Skip Prosser; these days they're a defense first, offensive second team. Wake Forest coach Dino Gaudio is already on record as having studied and instituted the Bennetts' (both father and son's) pack line defense.  More than likely, he knows all the warts it brings.  He must also know that his team is ill-suited to play offense against the pack line defense.

Wake brings back Al-Farouq Aminu, who passed on the NBA draft in order to improve his offensive game, is a beast down low on defense and will make lives miserable for ACC big guys.

Notable for the Deacons, however, is who doesn't return: Jeff Teague and James Johnson.  This team lacks outside shooting, badly, and the loss of those two (44% from three for Teague, 31% for Johnson) really hurts Wake on offense.  Although people appear to be counting on Ish Smith to step up and shoulder more of the offensive load, I remain dubious;  a guy with a low ORtg and high TO% just don't change their stripes overnight.

Furthermore, Virginia played Wake tough at home last year so the Cavs probably think they're beatable.

Bad team that, should Virginia lose to, I will remain upset for a number of days: NC State

Look, I live in Raleigh and I like Sidney Lowe. 

He's the Pete Gillen of the triangle.  Everybody likes the guy, but it's clear (to these eyes, anyway) that he's way, way, way over his head.

He had a great run in the ACC tourney a few years ago which followed a "meh" season.  That run remains the only reason he still has his job.  Indeed, you get the sense that he's a decent recruiter - he snagged JJ Hickson after all - it's just that the players don't improve while they're on the court.  His offensive sets are akin to running what my high school coach dubbed "freelance."

And then there's the idea that the Pack is planning to run more this year. Um. OK.

Up-and-comer team that will pose serious match-up problems: Georgia Tech

Merely judging by their record, you'd think that Georgia Tech was awful last year.  A 2-14 showing in the ACC will do that for you.

Paul Hewitt's club, though, wasn't nearly as bad as their record indicated.  One of the statistics that I like to look at is Ken Pomeroy's "luck" statistic.  As a social scientist, I'd call it "error", but basically think of it like this: it's the difference between what you'd expect from a team and what actually occurred.  In terms of luck, the Yellow Jackets ranked 340th out of 344 teams last year. 

There were so many games that they should've won - including the one against UVa - and just lost it at the end.

Hewitt, to his credit, looks like he's turned it around.  Gani Lawal (totally underrated, by the way) returns and all-everything frosh Derrick Favors steps in.  As long as they can keep Iman Shumpert from gunning too much, this team is going to be a trendy sleeper pick for ACC champs.

Ugh, who's going to guard these guys?  Can Sene possibly stay out of foul trouble on either Favors or Lawal?

They're baaaaaaaaaaaaaaccckkk (or wow, aren't they dislikable?) team: Maryland

Oh, Greivis Vasquez, with your impossible-to-spell first name and completely inscrutable player page,  no player in the ACC (save for Kyle Singler at Duke) exemplifies his team's personality than you.

You are so utterly dislikable.  You taunt and talk, even when your team hasn't been so good in the past. 

You loft up a surprising number of crazy shots; many of which fall.

Your coach, the great, yet jerkish Gary Williams, does an excellent job getting you the ball in places to score.

Oh, how I loathe you.

It's a bummer, everyone, Maryland has returned.  Now, don't confuse this team with the early 2000s Maryland team that featured Steve Blake and Juan Dixon.  But this team has some serious chops. 

Landon Millbourne returns as a senior and despite Vasquez getting all the pub, he's really the X factor.  If he plays well, Maryland could be relevant nationally.  If he fades or shows up inconsistently, like he's been prone to do at times in the previous 4 years, it could be another up and down season in college park.