Reviewing the Non-conference Hoops Schedule in Two Parts: Part I
Friday, October 02 2009 by Ben
Folks, October is here. We're just a month and a half away from the Virginia's first game.
Can time POSSIBLY MOVE ANY SLOWER?!
I have not been this stoked for a basketball season since 2007. I am excited and terrified to see what the team has in store. We could be awesome; we could be terrible. I JUST DON'T KNOW. STOP LOOKING AT ME!
We're going to take a look at what I think will be fun, exciting non-conference schedule. There are some toughies in there, but I think it will allow Tony Bennett to truly see what he's got to work with this season.
The first four games of the season are Longwood, South Florida, Rider, and Oral Roberts. You can already see Bennett's fingerprint on the schedule: Leitao often scheduled Longwood during conference play, whereas Bennett has moved it to the beginning of the season.
I could never figure out why Leitao would schedule games in this way; it's a long season, the team needed rest during the conference schedule and more tune-ups beforehand. Bennett has quickly figured out that he'll need all the game action he can get before the gauntlet of the ACC season.
Virginia ought to be favored in each of those games.
Longwood is perennially terrible and even though they had a winning record last season (17-14), their offensive and defensive efficiencies were awful. Longwood excelled at causing turnovers (5th in the nation) and well, being lucky.
Despite their poor showing last year (9-22), South Florida represents a good test for this Virginia squad. Head coach Stan Heath has brought in some young talent. Heath was able to put the ball in the hands of his best scorers and let them work. I don't say that flippantly, either. Dominique Jones, Gus Gilchrist, and Jesus Verdejo accounted for an amazing 85% of the team's shots. I seriously doubt you will find any team in the country with three guys whose usage rates are that high. Now, with Verdejo gone, Gilchrist and Jones have all of his possessions to themselves. If Gilchrist has become a more efficient scorer (and just by getting older, we can assume he will), USF could represent a significant hurdle for UVa.
This year, Virginia is participating in the Cancun Challenge. The set up of this tournament is actually kind of fascinating. Basically, there are four host (read: nationally known) teams that each host two games against non-host teams and then go to Cancun to play each other in a mini-tournament while the non-host teams have their own mini-tourney.
The "host" teams are Virginia, Stanford, Kentucky, and... Cleveland State? Now, I'm not scoffing at Cleveland State basketball talent. In fact, they won more NCAA tournament games last year than the other three host teams combined. It's just that I can't imagine Cleveland State is a strong attendance draw for the tourney.
Either way, Rider is Virginia's first non-host opponent. Rider (19-13) had a decent season last year and they have one player, Ryan Thompson, who has some significant game. His older brother, Jason, plays for the Sacramento Kings. He's a legitimate NBA prospect, ranking 21st on Draft Express's list of seniors. Thompson put up 18 ppg last year with an outstanding true shooting percentage of 61%. As a reference, Mike Scott, Virginia's TS% leader (who scored primarily on put-backs) only shot 59%. Really, this Thompson kid can play. Virginia should not take him lightly.
However, Rider was beaten handily by Liberty last year in the prestigious Collegeinsider.com tournament, so presumably current Virginia assistant and former Liberty head coach Ritchie McKay has scouted them.
As for Oral Roberts, well, they're just not going to be good this year. When you lose two first-team All-Summit players and you were 16-15 with them, you're in trouble.
In the first round of the mini-tournament, Virginia plays Stanford. Although Bennett probably knows Stanford somewhat from his Pac-10 days, Johnny Dawkins is still relatively new at coaching and so, Bennett probably doesn't know all of Dawkins' sets. However, it's not a bad way to prepare for playing Duke than by playing for Coach K's #1 assistant. Eh?
Stanford graduated most of it's primary scorers last year, so it's not clear who should be the favorite. If Virginia thumps its first four opponents, there's a chance they'll be favored. Win the game against Stanford, though, and face the likes of Kentucky (sorry, Cleveland State has almost no chance of beating what should be a dominant UK squad). UK would be a great opponent for Virginia.
Would UVa get thumped? Sure, but the best part is, they're supposed to get thumped. They can work on what it's like to play Duke or UNC early in the season. Bennett can figure out what he's got - who wilts under pressure and who doesn't.