Dear Old U.Va.

Longwood Preview

Wednesday, December 17 2008 by Tiki

Following a 15 day layoff due to final exams, the Virginia basketball team returns to action tonight against the independent Longwood Lancers.  Longwood comes into the matchup 5-5, with wins over such powerhouse schools as James Madison and Gardner-Webb, and losses to more highly regarded programs such as Virginia Tech and West Virginia.  Longwood’s last game was the matchup with the Hokies on Sunday, a 22 point loss for the Lancers.

The Cavs come in with a 3-3 record, riding a 3 game losing streak.  The losing streak began with against Liberty, which is a bad loss.  Following that was a close loss on the road in Syracuse, a game in which the Hoos led most of the way, and then a poor effort on the road at Minnesota.  This game is a chance for the Hoos to get back into a winning mode, at home against a relatively weak opponent, prior to entering the meat of the schedule. 

Longwood was supposed to return 8 players from last years squad that finished 9-22 in its first season as a full-fledge DI program.  This was meant to include Kirk Williams, the Lancers top scorer and rebounder last year at 16.9 ppg and at 6.5 rpg.  However, Kirk was ruled academically ineligible for the fall semester.  He is hoping to return next semester, if he meets NCAA eligibility requirements.  In his stead, junior G/F Dana Smith has picked up the slack.  Smith leads Longwood this season at just over 16 points per game.  Smith has also picked up the slack on the glass, as he leads the team, averaging 7 boards.  Smith missed most of the past two seasons with major knee injuries.  He received a medical hardship waiver from the NCAA, and is currently playing as a 5th year junior. 

SG Ryan Bogan was the 2nd leading scorer last year, and he has filled that role again this season, while upping his scoring average by 2 ppg.  Bogan is the top outside shooter on the team, and for his career is just under 40% from 3 point range.  Bogan combined with sweet-shooting guard Kevin Swecker to give the Lancers a couple of effective outside threats.

At point guard this season, sophomore Durann Neil and junior EJ Dawson have split time, although Bogan often initiates the offense.  Neil does lead the team with 3.4 apg.  Neither Neil nor Dawson are much of a threat to score, as both have effective FG% (eFG%) of under 40%. 

Longwood is small, and they will often play 3 or 4 guards/wings with a single big man, Antwan Carter.  Carter is only 6’6” but he is listed as a C on the team roster, and he plays big.  He is second on the team in rebounds, and he will guard the oppositions biggest interior threat.  The only other big man to get much playing time for Longwood is Billy Robinson, who is listed at 6’7” but only 195 lbs.  Robinson’s height is an asset, but he is too weak to be effective against quality big men. 

It is hard to say what to expect from this game.  Again, the Lancers are a weaker opponent, but then again so was Liberty.  You would expect Leitao to play a big lineup, with Sene, Soroye and Brandenburg all seeing time in the post, alongside Mike Scott.  The Lancers simply do not have the size to match up with the bigger lineup.  Against Liberty, the Hoos enjoyed a similar size advantage, and yet none of the three 7 footers played (Sene because of eligibility issues).  One would hope that Leitao learned something from that loss, but in the past two games, Sene and Meyinsse have been the centers, with Soroye and Brandenburg riding the pine. 

Virginia should have a decided advantage on the glass, considering their size and Longwood’s struggles in that area.  Longwood is in the bottom 10 in the country in opponent’s offensive boards.  Mike Scott could have a big game, scoring on second chances. 

A couple of things the Hoos must be concerned with are turnovers a perimeter defense.  Longwood forces a ton of turnovers, over 26 per game, while the Hoos turn it over entirely too much.  And Longwood shoots a lot of 3s, while the Hoos have not defended the perimeter very well this season. 

If the Hoos can dominate the glass as I expect them to, and keep from turning it over too much, they should win easily.  However, if they don’t defend the 3 point line, and Baker/Zeglinski continue to turn the ball over time and time again, we could find ourselves in a tight ballgame.