Dear Old U.Va.

Overall Team Preview: Basketball

Friday, November 13 2009 by Ben

This is the Dear Old UVa overall team preview.  We have reviewed the non-conference schedule (part I and part II) and the ACC schedule (part I and part II, coming early next week).

Despite my previous attempts to review the minutia of the schedule, it's important to not lose focus of the overall picture for the Wahoos.  Let's take stock of 1) what the media knows about Virginia and 2) what we know about Virginia.

What the media sees:  Talent-wise, this team will be known as Landesbergers.  There's no one talented enough on the team to help him reach that next level, which could hurt his draft status in the NBA.  There's not a single player that represents a solid number 2.  In the ACC, if you don't have at least two players that are at least on the NBA scout list, you're in for a very, very long season.

In addition to dearth of talent in C'ville, you've got a new coach, Tony Bennett.  Bennett's never coached in the ACC before - he doesn't know what it's like.  He's also emphasizing a completely new system that will slow the ball down, which just isn't ACC basketball.  I don't care how good a coach is - nuances take time, learning offensive sets takes time.  The season just has disaster written all over it.

As a result, the ACC media picked Virginia to finish 11th out of 12 teams.

What we see: In many respects, the media is probably right: the team will go only as far as Landesberg takes them.  The one thing that I loved about Landesberg is his craftiness and patience on offense.  The guy would probe, again and again until he found a seam and would finish with ease.   As the season wore on and teams began to scheme him, those seams became smaller and smaller.  Forced to rely on his somewhat iffy jumper, Landesberg wasn't nearly the same player down the stretch.  Virginia faded as well.  A year of maturity and (hopefully) additional muscle will help Landesberg here and it IS his team. 

However, as is customary here at Dear Old UVa, I take umbrage at the idea that there's no clear #2.  It is my hope that this season represents a break out for Dear Old UVa fan favorite Mike Scott. Scott, as I have argued multiple times, has an ORtg befitting of star, not a third or fourth option, why is he relegated as such?  Granted, as his usage increases, there will more than likely be some drop off there. The point remains, however: why send guard after guard into the lane with two defenders on him to loft up a low percentage two, when Scott is working his butt off to get good post position?

This is where Tony Bennett's hire comes in - I'm hoping he utilizes this set of personnel better than Leitao did.  As I documented last year, Leitao was either conflicted about who to play consistently or was delusional and thought he was suffering from an embarrassment of riches.  Either way, it spelled doom far too often.  Bennett has already said that he'll establish a consistent rotation of guys that are doing things "the right way."  This makes me exceedingly happy.

Furthermore, Bennett's system of slowing the pace befits this roster.  Neither of Virginia's top two point guards, Sammy Zeglinski and Calvin Baker. are lightning quick, blow-by-you in a nanosecond types - especially with Baker being hobbled by knee surgery.  Both, however, can knock down an open three at a decent clip if given an opening.  Furthermore, with most of the teams in the ACC ranking in the top third of pace, I think it makes complete sense to force teams to win in the half court.

All that being said, I still like the Wahoos to finish... 10th in the ACC.

Yuck.  I know.  I'm usually so optimistic, right?

Here's my biggest problem: the ACC will be a strong conference top-to-bottom this year.  Last year, I was comfortable saying that at the beginning of the season, that there were three top teams (UNC, Duke, and Wake) and the middle was less than mediocre relative to other conferences.  That's just not true this year.

Georgia Tech reloaded after a down year.  Maryland is good.  Wake is still decent.  Miami is athletic.  Clemson has Trevor Booker (love him).  FSU could be good if Alabi doesn't totally regress.  Not to mention Duke and UNC are kind of awesome still. NC State, well, at least we'll be better than that awful outfit.

This year, conference wins will be at a premium.  It'll make for murkier conference standings and should be a blast for fans of ACC basketball.

So, unfortunately, that means less wins for UVa than I'd like.  Though, I expect to see some improvement, even if it's not in the win column, from last year - put me down for six ACC wins and 15 overall.

After John Gasaway's 8-win prediction, I desperately wanted to put on the rose-colored glasses, but the Jamil Tucker loss really kind of shook me.  To go 0.500 in the ACC, so very many things have to break properly: Zeglinski can't be turnover-prone, Landesberg must be 1st team All-ACC,  Assane Sene simply cannot foul as much,  Farrakhan must step up to be a reliable three-point threat, Mike Scott must take on more of the offensive load, and so on.

I'm not saying all those things can't happen, but simultaneously?  It seems like a stretch.

Don't be fooled, either.  Just because the wins stay the same doesn't mean the team is.  Progress can be made without it showing up in the win column. 

It all starts tonight. 

Bring your lunch pail.