Is an inconsistent rotation the problem?
Monday, January 26 2009 by Ben
The first half that Virginia played against FSU was, quite possibly, the worst offensive half of basketball I've ever witnessed as a Wahoo fan. In a word: tragic. In two: tragically awful.
The first possession, for example, Mike Scott stole the ball and had a two-on-one, but threw the ball to directly to FSU on the break. I felt like this possession was merely a metaphor for the game as a whole. Virginia was trying its darnedest; they just didn't have wherewithal to finish smartly. Virginia played so very well on the defensive end in the first half - it was a major victory to walk in the locker room only down 14 - that all they needed was a couple of baskets to make it close.
Again, in a sense, Leitao should be commended for his troops sticking it out and never laying down - see Maryland versus Duke a few hours prior for an instance of a team giving up.
However, the offense looked discombobulated. The turnovers were terrible and the shooting was a killer. Florida State's height bothered the Wahoos on the interior, but nothing fell from the outside, either.
The other point that struck me - and I'd noticed this before, but never really charted it out - is the inconsistency of Dave Leitao's rotation. For example Jamil Tucker spent a great deal of the game on the bench. Tucker, coming off his best game in a Cavalier uniform against Maryland (21 points), only played 11 minutes. His line of 10 points on 3-5 shooting, two rebounds (both offensive), an assist, and a steal is not too shabby for only 11 minutes of PT.
I've plotted the minutes of three of the four major subs - assuming that the top six are Landesberg, Scott, Zeglinski, Sene, Baker, and Diane.
Isn't it amazing how much it bounces around? Where are the defined roles? How do the players get "in a rhythm"?
I realize that Tucker plays much more often when Sene is foul trouble but ... where was Tucker in the first half against FSU? Shouldn't one of our major three point threats get some minutes while Zeglinski isn't shooting well from beyond the arc? When FSU loaded up on the bigs, why didn't we switch to a 3-4-5 of Tucker, Scott and Sene?
Jones' minutes, in particular, are worrisome. Farrakhan has taken a good portion of them, but Leitao's yanking Jones in and out of games like a yo-yo. I'm happy he played well against FSU; does that mean he'll just rack up a DNP-CD (Did Not Play - Coach's Decision) against Duke or will he be the first one off the bench? How can he expect to know?
I'm not a college coach. My High School coach - who could be a college coach with all the complexity he cooked up - was very consistent about playing time. When I was a senior, I managed to work my way up the depth chart (some because of my own skills, some because of the failings of others). However, it was a gradual increase and I could see it coming. With our bench, I wonder if they even know if they're going to play on a given night.
I honestly have no idea how the rotation works; I sincerely hope Leitao does.
4 comment(s) and 1 trackback(s)
I could be wrong about this, but it seems to me that the enigmatic substitutions and/or quick hooks seem to be related to defense and blocking out, which are things that are hard to catch via stats. Tucker in particular seems to be an offensive dynamo, but to my amateur eye he often gets lost of defense and rotates poorly. To a coach who claims to hang his hat on defense and rebounding, that has to be absolutely galling.
I attended the first ever game at JPJ (during Tucker's freshman season), and there was one incident in particular that spoke to this situation. Tucker was manned up on fellow freshman Chase Budinger on the right wing. Budinger launched a 3 and clanged it short off the rim. Tucker turned to watch the shot and completely missed Budinger streaking right by him to dunk the rebound back in. I swear Leitao called a TO before Budinger hit the floor and met Tucker under the basket to suggest that he think more about blocking out on D. I think that was the last time Tucker played in that game.
You could argue quite validly that the quick hook isn't completely appropriate for one of the least experienced teams in the nation, but it seems that we should look toward what happens when the other team has the ball to try to figure out why players who are helping put the ball in the basket are riding the pine a lot.
What was surprising to me was to see on kenpom's site that Tucker is the team's most effective defensive rebounder (aside from Sene, whom we still have to discount for playing such limited minutes). Still, I think if you watch Tucker when the opponent dribbles into the lane, you'll often wish he had done something else.
Abs -
You've got a valid point. Tucker does confound on the defensive end at times, and I, too was shocked to see his DR% so high. On a team that middling on the defensive glass (not great, not terrible) it certainly is surprising.
I guess my point in bringing Tucker up was that the defense that we'd be sacrificing - and you make the point well that we would be sacrificing defense - would be worth the gains on the offensive end.
I know fans often get caught up in the offensive game because many don't appreciate/understand the defensive side of the ball. I'm not trying to be ignorant in this area. It's just with the offensive playing so (historically) bad in the first half, maybe we trade off some defensive ability for a scorer to shake things up.
You're absolutely right that we needed some offensive punch (or even some offensive weak slap) in that atrocity of a game. That's a valid point. I guess I was just trying to think about why these guys seem to get yanked so quickly, and I think it's because of D and rebounding, even when the team seems to be suffering most on O.
It *has* seemed to me that that Leitao has had a bit of a lighter touch with the squad on the sidelines this year. He hasn't seemed to get in players faces quite as much as they come off the floor. And I've just assumed that has been a nod to the inexperience of the team. Stil, you're right that players are in and out of the lineup all the time.
What I would most like to know is why the team can't shoot at one end of JPJ. I seem to recall accounts of several first halves this season where the Hoos shot < 30% from the floor in the first half. What is wrong with us when we're headed that direction? In 7 of 11 home games this year, the Hoos have had a better eFG% in the second half than the first. And in all but one of them did they shoot better both inside and outside the arc in the second half. I haven't compared that to away games yet, but it really stands out to me at home.
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Good analysis.
To your point about playing time, Leitao also seems to be the king of the quick meaningless substitution. More than once on Saturday, he immediately sent in a sub just after play began following a timeout (and not of the the offense-defense 1-possession substitution.) Leitao also has a habit of sending guys in for less than a minute, especially Jones. How can they get on track with quick substitutions like that?