Dear Old U.Va.

Finishing Strong

Friday, October 24 2008 by Ben

In our final installment, we'll tackle the last four games on the schedule: Miami, Wake Forest, at Clemson, and Maryland.

Last year's Wake Forest team was a great story.  Dino Gaudio filled in admirably for the late Skip Prosser and should be commended for his smooth transition into head coaching after such an unfortunate sequence of events.  The Demon Deacons finished with a record of 7-9 in the ACC, which, again, is very admirable finish given all the off the court schnitzel.

This year, however, should and must be a different story.  Gaudio returns all five starters from a young, talented lineup.  He has a mighty fine recruiting class coming in as well.  The Deacs are listed as an "Elevator Team" by those decent folks at Storming the Floor.  Expectations are there.  Can Gaudio get it done?

I think the answer is yes...but.

A 2-10 road record just won't do.  Only beating two reasonably terrible teams, Iowa and Florida State, away from home base just doesn't bode well.  I know the team was inexperienced, which as we all know is important, but, man, the deck was stacked for Gaudio. 

And it still is this year.  I think they'll make the leap over Duke for the second in the ACC.

Case in point: James Johnson.  Everyone - this gentleman can fill up the stat sheet.  He's sort of like an Andre Kirelinko back when he AKAed as AK-47 and his wife was damned determined to be cool.  He's a high usage guy (26% of the team's possessions), but he finishes well (57% from twos) and rebounds like a beast (getting 11% and 20% of available offensive and defensive rebounds, respectively).  He steals the ball and blocks a lot of shots. 

His only deficiency is three-point shooting (28% on 100 attempts).  If Gaudio has any semblance of competency, either Johnson's shooting percentage should go up this year or his attempts should go down.  Maybe both.  Surprisingly, after all that good stuff, Johnson's still under-appreciated in the ACC.  And oh yeah, he did all that as a freshman.

With Johnson and all their bigs, I just don't see the Wahoos beating this team.  Prosser and Gaudio have done a tremendous job putting this team together.  They're going to be very good this year.

There's also been a bit of big "to do" about Miami this preseason.  Rightly so.  The Hurricanes return four grizzled (can you be grizzled in college? I say yes.) starters, all of which are either juniors or seniors, on a squad that had a solid NCAA Tourney appearance.  Frank Haith gave his former boss, Rick Barnes, a small scare before bowing out.

I've always been told, "Be bold with your predictions."  So part of me wants to simply bury Miami and tell you that their offense will be outstanding, but their deficiencies on defense will come back to haunt them.  I can't.  This is a quality team.  I don't think they'll challenge for top spot in the ACC, but they will be pretty darn good.

Jack McClinton can shoot and does, a lot.  He takes 28% of his team's shots.  It's good for him  and his team that he shoots so well (eFG of 54%), because he gets to the line so infrequently.  He's similar to JJ Redick in this respect.  In his senior year, Redick switched from a jumpshooter to initiating contact.  He increase his free throw attempts by 25%.  McClinton must do this in order to be noticed by NBA scouts.

So, we've run the gamut here from the non-conference schedule and the ACC slate in four parts (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, and this here part).

How do I think they look?  After some careful consideration, I'm positing an overall record of 16-11 and a ACC record of 6-10. 

Not the worst, but certainly not the best. Right in that meaty curve. Like I've said before, an 8-8 ACC run must be  considered a colossal success. I'm looking forward to being proven wrong.

Final note: Patrick, Q, and Will are closing up shop over at ACCNation.  Please do go wish them well.  They're the grooviest bunch of goofballs this side of the Atlantic.