Cautious Optimism
Wednesday, January 20 2010 by Ben
While the current ACC standings give us all a little bit of a high - go ahead check them again, last time this week, though - I'd like to tell everyone to take a deep breath.
I won't say that I was the first person to sound the "These guys might be better than you think!" alarm; the BP guys have that covered. However, I did quip a few weeks ago before the UAB game that Virginia's bad luck might have been the reason they were a sleeper team. So, I was actually right about something. Hoorah.
That still doesn't change what this team is: a middle to bottom ACC team. Which is to say, a pretty darned good team that could sneak into the NCAA tournament if things break their way.
Huh?
Do me a favor. Follow this link to Pomeroy's ACC predicted records. It's not perfect, of course, but as Pomeroy points out no less than 7 of the 12 ACC teams are predicted to finish within a game of 0.500. That's the ACC everyone's been spouting about for a while: weak at top (other than Duke), strong through the middle.
Meaning that the ACC will be dogfight to finish above 0.500, those that do will, more than likely get an NCAA bid.
In his most recent Bubble Watch (a must read for any serious college hoops fan), Andy Glockner included UVa only because they're leading the ACC currently and got the auto bid from the conference. If Virginia weren't leading the ACC, they wouldn't be included in the discussion because of their weak out of conference schedule.
I emailed him to see what he thought UVa's chances were; here's our short exchange:
Me: As an expert on this kind of stuff, how many ACC wins do you think Virginia needs for a bid? Will 8 do it?
Glockner: It's impossible to say with any certainty, but it probably will have to be north of that.
Paradoxically, that makes the 3-0 start that much more valuable, but also feels like they don't mean anything. If this streak occurred in the middle of the season, would anyone have noticed?
To get to six more ACC wins to finish at 9-7, Virginia needs a sustained push in the ACC.
Where would those wins come from?
I think Virginia would have to split with Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, and Maryland. That's no easy feat; all of those teams are probably better than UVa currently. They must sweep NC State and beat Boston College on the road, the bottom feeders in the ACC. Then, either beat FSU at home (if NC State beat them at in Tallahassee, that could happen) or Miami on the road (seems unlikely) or Clemson on the road (Clemson is known for hiccups late in the season, but still unlikely).
Man, that seems far-fetched. I still think a six win season is more likely, but an NIT bid would be just what the doctor ordered: more home games, more experience than a probably one and done NCAA tourney bid.
Regardless, that would be an unquestionably successful first season for Tony Bennett and co.