Super Regional Preview - Oklahoma
Thursday, June 10 2010 by Tiki
So, the Hoos move on to face the Oklahoma Sooners in a Super Regional to be held at Davenport field in Charlottesville. For anybody who doesn’t know, the Super Regionals are a simple best of 3 series. The first game will be Saturday at 3PM ET. The second game will be Sunday at 4 PM. The third, and final, game will be played Monday at either 1 PM or 7PM, and only if the two teams split the first 2 games.
Oklahoma had a solid season, finishing at 47-15. They were particularly good at home, going 22-6. On the road, however, they were just 15-6. They were also 7-3 in neutral sites. I suppose technically, the games this weekend will be “neutral” because it is an NCAA venue. But obviously Wahoo fans will be out in force, and our players will be much more comfortable with the surroundings.
Oklahoma’s offense scored 492 runs in their 62 games. The Hoos scored 515 runs in an equal number of games. The Sooners allowed 271 runs, while the Hoos allowed just 253 runs. Fielding percentages for the two teams were about even, a .978 for the Hoos and .975 for the Sooners. By most measures, these two teams are similar, although Virginia’s schedule was probably tougher than OU’s. Still, there is a reason why both were #1 seeds.
The opener, on Saturday, will likely pit OU’s Zach Neal (8-3, 4.42 ERA) against UVA’s Danny Hultzen (10-1, 2.83 ERA). Over the past month, Neal is 4-1, with a 5.46 ERA and a K/BB ratio of 26:10 in 29.2 innings, while Hultzen is 3-1 with a 5.73 ERA and a 12:20 ratio. Hultzen, clearly, has been struggling a bit. It should be noted that those 4 starts were all against NCAA tournament teams, including 2 starts against #1 seed Miami. Still, he hasn’t been the same pitcher he was earlier in the season. Obviously, we would love to see Hultzen dominate like we know he is capable of. But likely the bats are going to have to wake up, after struggling for the past two games against St John’s.
On Sunday, the pitching matchup is likely to be OU’s Bobby Shore (9-4, 4.23 ERA) against Robert Morey (9-3, 3.72 ERA). Like Hultzen, Morey has been struggling of late, after having a fairly dominating run near the end of the regular season. Morey is more than capable of shutting down the Sooner’s bats, but again some run support would be nice.
If needed, the third game will be Monday, and provides some intrigue as to who will pitch, particularly for the Hoos. Junior transfer Cody Winiarski has been the team’s third starter for most of the season, and was the starter in the opening game of the regional. However, in the elimination game on Monday, Brian O’Connor went with freshman Brandon Kline, and Kline came through with a big start. It seems that Kline has perhaps earned another key start. In the end, it may come down to how the first two games go, because Kline is likely to be one of the first men out of the pen if Hultzen or Morey struggle early.
For the Sooners, freshman Ryan Gibson (5-2, 3.76) opened the season as the third starter, but recently junior Michael Rocha (7-1, 3.50 ERA) has been getting those starts. H e had only 5 starts during the season, but they are all in the past month. I expect we’d see Rocha on Monday.
Over the course of the season, the Sooners have changed their starting lineup a bit, as some younger players have come into their own. Some of the offensive stats are mislead, because players didn’t play a full season. They start 5 lefties in their lineup, which should help Danny Hultzen out.
This Virginia team seems well built for a 3 game Super-Regional, as they should have the starting pitching advantage in all three possible games. Of course, this is reliant on the pitchers performing at their best. During the regional in Norman, the Sooners won 3 games, each by 1 run, including 2 extra innings games. One hopes they won’t have the same good fortune in Davenport field.