Dear Old U.Va.

Charlottesville Regional Preview

Wednesday, June 02 2010 by Tiki

The Hoos open the NCAA Baseball tournament on Friday, as the #5 overall seed in the tournament. Let’s disregard the incongruity of giving the #5 seed to a team that finished 2^nd in RPI and no worse than 3^rd in every poll that matters. It is what is it, and the Hoos are happy to be hosting a regional (and hopefully a superregional).

The Charlottesville regional includes the Cavs, the Ole Miss Rebels, the Big East champion St John’s Red Storm and the CAA champion VCU Rams. The Hoos open the regional at 4PM on Friday, against VCU. Ole Miss and St John’s will play later on Friday. This preview is going to focus on Virginia’s opponents, as I expect anybody reading this is already familiar with the Hoos.

On May 4^th, we faced the Rams at Davenport field, and managed a 9-5 win. Brandon Kline started that game for the Hoos, earning the win while going 6 innings, allowing 4 runs on 5 hits with 5 K’s and a walk. Kline retired the final 13 batters he faced. Jarrett Parker and Phil Gosselin each HR’d for the Hoos, while Brent Mikionis and M.L. Morgan each HR’d for the Rams.

This game will likely be different, as that game was a mid-week game, necessitating the use of 4^th starters for each team. Rather than starting the freshman Kline, the Hoos will likely go with Cody Winiarski, their usual 3^rd starter. I expect that we’ll see Seth Cutler-Voltz go for VCU. He is their #1 starter, and probably the only guy on the team who stands a shot of shutting down the Virginia lineup.

Going with Winiarski is a bit of a gamble, as he is by far the weakest of Virginia’s starting pitchers. Kline might even be a better option, although perhaps coach Brian O’Connor is wary of starting a freshman in the NCAA opener. Winiarski is a junior college transfer, so he is older and has a bit more big game experience. If Winiarski struggles at all, expect to see Kline come in from the bullpen. If the game is close, the Hoos have a big advantage in the bullpen, with Tyler Wilson and Kevin Arico ready to shut the door if needed.

The Hoos should be confident of beating the Rams, considering they are playing at home, and are obviously a much more talented team. This is not a guarantee of anything, the Hoos will have to play a solid game to finish on top. I’m sure the Rams are happy to be playing a team they know so well, as opposed to an unfamiliar team from some other part of the country.

In the other Friday game, #2 seed Ole Miss will face #3 seed St John’s. Ole Miss boasts one of the top starting pitchers in the nation, in Drew Pomeranz. Wahoo fans should be familiar with Pomeranz, as we faced him in last year’s Super Regional, in Oxford. Pomeranz shut down the Hoos in that game, going 7 innings and giving up just 2 runs on 7 hits while fanning 10. He left with a 3-2 lead, but the Hoos battled back for a 4-3 win. This year, Pomeranz finished 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 15 starts. At this point, it is up in the air whether Pomeranz will face St John’s or if they will hold him back for a potential Saturday matchup with us. In my opinion, it would be a mistake to hold him back, and I am not saying this simply because I do not want to face him. The Johnnies are on fire, having swept through the Big East tournament to earn an NCAA berth that they would not have gotten otherwise. They boast their own ace starter, in freshman Kyle Hansen, who was 8-1 on the season with a 3.09 ERA. I assure you that St John’s will send Hansen to the mound on Friday, so if the Rebels decide to hold Pomeranz back, they may regret it.

None of the other 3 teams in the regional have a second starter who is much of a threat. The Ole Miss #2 is senior Aaron Barrett, who went 7-4 with a 4.16 ERA. For St John’s, the #2 starter is senior Bruce Kern, who finished 6-5 with a 5.91 ERA. I don’t have a clue who VCU’s #2 starter is, but considering Michael Graham did not fare well against us a month ago, I would expect freshman Kyle Haynes to go if we were to face VCU a second time. The Hoos, of course, have Robert Morey and Danny Hultzen behind Winiarski. The two combined to go 18-4, with a 3.00 ERA.

Even if the Rebels hold Pomeranz back and he manages to beat us on Saturday, I still expect the Hoos to advance. Ole Miss simply does not have the depth to beat us twice. If Pomeranz goes on Saturday, there is almost no way he could come back for a second start in the regional. This is another reason why I expect him to go on Friday. If Ole Miss is to advance, they will likely need two starts from him.

Despite the griping about the Hoos being “shafted” by the selection committee for the second time in a row, the Hoos got a very favorable regional, and are overwhelming favorites to advance.