Dear Old U.Va.

Building on Success

Monday, February 15 2010 by Tiki

Following the most successful season in the history of Virginia baseball, the Hoos enter the 2010 season with lofty expectations.  The preseason Baseball America poll has the Hoos ranked 2^nd, behind defending champions Texas.  The ESPN/USA Today poll has the Hoos 4^th.  In both polls, the Hoos are 1 of 6 ACC teams in the top 25.

The Hoos return almost their entire team from last year, having lost only a few contributors, SP Andrew Carraway, RP Matt Packer, SP Jeff Lorick and RP Robert Poutier.  Carraway is a big loss, as he had 9 wins and was second on the team in innings pitched with 91.  Packer was perhaps the busiest of Virginia pitchers last year, appearing in 32 games including 4 starts.  Packer picked up 3 wins and 3 saves with a 4.13 ERA.  Lorick was a starter early on before losing that job.  He appeared in just 8 games, 7 of them starts and finished 2-1 with a 5.51 ERA.  Poultier saw some action as a midweek starter, as well as out of the pen and finished 3-0 with a 2.21 ERA and 50 Ks in just 36.2 IP.  Helping to overcome these losses is a freshman class that was ranked in the top 10 nationally.

The Rotation

A year ago, the Hoos were led by a pitching staff that finished 3^rd in the nation in team ERA.  This was no fluke, as they also were 3^rd in H/9, 12^th in K/9 and 18^th in BB/9.  The pitching staff was aided by having a great defensive team behind them, ranking 27^th in fielding percentage (admittedly Fielding % is not the greatest metric, but it is more relevant in college than in the pros, and it is also the only metric I could find).

The staff this year, dare I say it, may be even better than last year.  Sophomore Danny Hultzen, arguably the top starter last year (Carraway might have something to say about that distinction), returns a year older and looks to build on a freshman season that saw him named ACC freshman of the year, as well as to several All-American and All-Freshman teams.  Hultzen was 9^th in the nation with a 2.17 ERA.  Hultzen also played 1B when he wasn’t on the mound, and led ACC freshman with a .327 batting average.  Hultzen will begin the season as the #1 starter.

Robert Morey, forever known as “The Pitcher Who Outdueled Stephen Strasburg”, will likely enter the season as the #2 starter.  Morey started 9 games last year, winning 3, and also picked up 2 saves.  He compiled a 3.33 ERA, which was good for 7^th in the ACC.  Morey struck out 84 batters in just 67.2 innings, a rate a 11.17 K/9, good for 13^th in the country.

The 3^rd starter spot is somewhat up for grabs right now.  Among players vying for the job are several freshmen, including Brandon Kline.  Kline was a 6^th round draft pick of the Boston Red Sox, but chose to postpone his pro career and signed with the Hoos.  Kline was the #1 HS player in the state of Maryland, posting an ERA of 0.51 as a senior.  Along with Kline, others in the mix of the 3^rd starter are Tyler Wilson (two starts last year to go along with 9 wins and a 2.97 ERA), Justin Thompson (brother of former UVA All American Jacob Thompson), Will Roberts (4-0 in 11 appearances including 6 starts).

The Lineup

While the Hoos relied greatly on their pitching staff, that is not to imply that they couldn’t hit.  The team was 33^rd in the nation in team batting average, 6^th in hits and 11^th in stolen bases.  The Hoos return that entire lineup, led by senior SS Tyler Cannon and junior OFs Jarrett Parker and Dan Grovatt.  All 3 batted over .350, while Parker also led the team with 16 HRs.  The 3 also combined for 51 steals on 60 attempts.

The everyday lineup should look something like this:

1	SS	Tyler Cannon
2	DH/P	Danny Hultzen
3	LF	Phil Gosselin
4	RF	Dan Grovatt
5	3B	Stephen Proscia
6	CF	Jarrett Parker
7	C	Franco Valdez
8	1B	John Hicks
9	2B	Keith Werman

You may notice this looks a lot like the lineup last season.  You would be right.  It is possible that Parker and Proscia (last years’ top 2 in HR) move up in the lineup, to take more advantage of their slugging.  While most of the positions are pretty much set, it is possible that a few of the younger players step in and contribute, possibly at 1B and in the OF.  Hultzen plays 1B when he isn’t pitching, during which time Hicks usually DHs.  Werman came on late last season, starting every game in the CWS and has probably locked down the starting 2B for this season, despite only 70 ABs a season ago.

The only knock on this team is a lack of power, but that may not be a problem this year.  Parker is a year older and stronger.  Proscia hit 10 HRs as a freshman, and could easily break 20 this season.  Others, such as Gosselin and Grovatt could well see their power numbers increase.  Either way, the strength of the lineup is still going to be speed and putting pressure on the defense.

The Bullpen

The final piece of the puzzle is the bullpen, led by closer Kevin Arico.  Arico had 11 saves last year, tied for 22^nd in the nation.  He struck out 47 batters in just 35.2 innings and had a 2.70 ERA.  The depth behind Arico is astounding.  All of the names I mentioned for the 3^rd starter job will be in the mix for bullpen duty as well.  Most of the freshman pitchers will see time out of the pen, and there is also junior college transfer Cody Winiarski, who will fight for the 3^rd starter, but will likely end up working out of the pen.

Season Preview

The Hoos open the season with a 3 game set at the 11th ranked ECU Pirates.  This series could set the tone for the entire season.  While losing the series probably doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme, winning the series will really let the nation know the Hoos are ready for a big season.  After the ECU series, the Hoos have a 9 game home stand, against largely 2nd tier teams, and then a road game at William and Mary, before beginning the ACC schedule.  There are other out of conference mid-week games later in the season. 

That ACC schedule is brutal, considering the talent level of ACC baseball.  The Hoos ACC slate opens @FSU on March 12-14.  The rest of the ACC slate includes home series with BC, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and UNC.  Further road series include NCSU, Maryland, Duke and Miami. 

Realistically, the Hoos should win all their home series.  The real measure will be if they get sweeps.  Obviously, teams like UNC, Clemson and Georgia Tech are very good teams and traditional powerhouses.  Virginia Tech is an up and coming team, with 3 potential first round draft picks.  Still, being at home and having the better pitching matchups in most of the games should give the Hoos an advantage.  Out of the 15 home ACC games, I would expect the Hoos to take around 12 of them (losing 1 each to UNC, Clemson and GT). 

The road series are tougher, especially the FSU and Miami games.  Taking 2 out of 3 against NCSU and Maryland shouldn’t be too difficult an endeavor.  Duke, FSU and Miami are a different story.  A win in those series would really be a bonus.  Again, there are 15 road ACC games, and I would expect the Hoos to take around 8 of them (losing 4 total to FSU and Miami, plus one each at Duke, Maryland and NCSU). 

Including the ECU series, there are only 6 road out of conference games, and I would expect the Hoos to win 5 of them (losing once to ECU).  At home, the Hoos get 18 out of conference games, and they could well win all 18, although chances are they will drop one or two. 

Conclusions

The predicted results above would put us at 43-13, which is right on pace with last years’ record.  Hopefully, like last year, the team will round into shape just in time for post season play.  The improvements made to Davenport Field mean the Hoos have a very good chance to host a regional, and possibly even a super regional.  A return trip to Omaha, while far from a certainty, is  a strong possibility. 

You wanna know what the scariest thing about this years’ team is? There are only 2 seniors of any consequence. Yes, the future of Wahoo baseball is very bright.